Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Most of Hurricane Prep Involves Being Where It Isn't

 I remember when I moved here to South Florida being in a conversation about the weather.  Why not, right?  Everyone talks about the weather but you can't do anything about it.

When the topic shifted to Hurricanes and Tropical Storms the comment that sticks with me was simple.

"You just have to hope that it isn't where you are."

Of course that has a few other meanings.  Wish it on someone else comes to mind along with hope for a fish spinner.

A Fish Spinner is a storm that is out to sea and never really comes on shore.  It spins a few fish, splashes a few waves, and bothers nobody.

There are a few basic things that are required in order to create a hurricane, and the more of those basic things that you have, the worse the storm will be.

Ocean temperatures of 27C or 86F are required.  That will tend to feed a small cluster of thunderstorms and make them grow.  It does not mean that you will have a monster, it merely means that the conditions are better for the creation of a storm.

The winds have to be favorable as well.   That cluster of storms with a strong shear won't get a start on growth.

Since the Gulf of Mexico has been turned from a body of water into a hot tub thanks to all the carbon we have been pumping into the atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, and especially over the last hundred years, the conditions are ripe for the creation of a monster storm like Milton or any other category 5 storm.

Here I sit, in one of the places in Florida that are going to have "minor" effects from this storm.  It's going to come ashore in the Tampa Bay area, work its way towards Orlando and the Space Coast, and then back out to sea.  I'm near Fort Lauderdale, and I am hoping that this won't be my storm.  I'm listening to news coverage of the "event" where a Dentist was talking about clearing out the rubbish from Helene two weeks before in Tampa and hoping that the 15 foot storm surge won't wipe out his office in an eerily quiet and abandoned city. 

A 15 foot storm surge is not survivable. 

Last minute preparations should have been made the day before.

Here, I picked up the plastic table and chairs, the other light objects that could fly and threw them into the pool in the back yard.  The wind sock on the porch is down, and as a result a bird decided it was time to fly into the front window and end itself.  That is why I have wind socks on the front of the house, to save the birds.

But here, that is about all I will do.  The Bahama shutters are down.  The light plastic items are in the pool and will benefit from the bath.

This isn't Tampa, this isn't our storm.  Good luck up there, you're going to need help recovering. 

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